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  This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
  這本書尚未翻譯成中文,書名暫翻為「這次不同」,有趣的是越往後讀,越發現作者要說的是,「這次並沒有不同」。本書回顧、觀察了700多年來60多國的資料,分析其金融市場、政府經濟政策與國家債務等,是一份具學術價值的財經資料彙整。那麼對一般讀者有什麼意義呢?

  透過歷史這面鏡子,我們可以看到每次金融風暴前,必有經濟榮景出現,這時無論政府還是企業,為了利益或粉飾太平,有意無意都將警訊忽略,而且告訴專家和民眾:放心,這次情況不同,錯誤不會再發生。但一樣的教訓發生了至少700年,全世界的人民都在背負後果。本書提醒我們應該居安思危,尤其作為一個投資者必須明白,榮景的背後是近在眼前的危機,企業的評估也當更謹慎。


.作者:Reinhart, Carmen M./ Rogoff, Kenneth S.
.譯者:
.分類:行銷管理
.出版社:Princeton Univ Pr
.出版日期:2009/10/01
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文章節錄
  Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. This book proves that premise wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.

  Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.

  An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
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